Joe Yerardi

• 12/ 8/2010: Newspaper Story - Republican members of the Interim Committee on Budget Transparency have complained about the governor's travel
• 12/ 6/2010: Newspaper Story - Race is emerging as one of the factors in Missouri's congressional redistricting debate.
• 11/11/2010: Newspaper Story - Business and labor renew debate over "right to work" efforts for 2011
• 11/ 8/2010: Newspaper Story - Independent spending by outside groups in the Missouri senate race has exploded
• 11/ 3/2010: Newspaper Story - The largest House GOP caucus in Missouri history picks its leader.
• 11/ 1/2010: Newspaper Story - Report from the victory rally for Republican Congressman Roy Blunt in Springfield
• 10/21/2010: Newspaper Story - A profile on the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate
• 10/20/2010: Newspaper Story - Rex Sinquefield, wealthy backer of earnings tax repeal, funds many Missouri politicians
• 10/18/2010: Newspaper Story - November's ballot includes a ban on a tax mechanism for cities throughout Missouri.
• 10/14/2010: Newspaper Story - Congressman Roy Blunt and Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan met in Kansas City on Thursday for their first debate of the election cycle.
• 9/17/2010: Newspaper Story - A decision on the statewide earnings tax ballot issue is delayed.
• 9/14/2010: Info. box on the candidates for the U.S. Senate.
• 9/13/2010: Newspaper Story - A conservative group on a tour through Missouri stopped by the state capitol Monday morning, bearing a message of fiscal austerity. At the same time, one of its out-of-state backers is being sued for campaign finance violations.
• 9/ 8/2010: Newspaper Story - The state auditor has released a report blasting two major tax credit programs just as the governor's tax credit reform commission gets underway.

Posted 12/05/2010: 

Last Friday, I got a call from a certain committee chairman. He wanted to clear something up--or, at least, believed he needed to clear something up.

Another member of the legislature whom I had interviewed had misinterpreted a question of mine and had called the chairman, seeking more information. The chairman, taken aback, had in turn called me to "clear it up." Of course, I had not told the legislator anything of the sort. It was a simple misunderstanding but it was a reminder of just how much influence reporters can have--or, at the very least, how much influence those who are most covered by reporters, like politicians, believe they have.

So, cynics out there, don't tell me that our reporting has no impact. Clearly, in the eyes of those who are most covered in it, it does.

Yes, I flew home for Thanksgiving week so don't look for my byline until next week, where I'll be looking at the impact of Republicans' expanded legislative majorities on the redistricting legislators are expected to take up in the next session.

Happy Thanksgiving, folks!

Some insight might be gained by looking at their leadership.

In the House, the Republicans will nominate Steven Tilley to be Speaker. Tilley, a well-known conservative, has indicated he'll stay away from divisive social issues but has indicated that he'll push conservative issues like eliminating the state's income tax.

In the Senate, Rob Mayer beat out Kevin Engler for the top spot of president pro tem. Mayer, seen as the more conservative of the two, apparently won by a tie-breaking drawing. Mayer is already making waves by indicating he'd like to see a "right to work" bill introduced in his chamber.

With conservatives in charge of both chambers and both chambers enjoying enlarged Republican majorities, the next two years could see a great deal of partisan conflict in the run up to the gubernatorial election two years from now.

Well, it's all come down to this. Tomorrow, we'll have a new (presumptive) United States senator. Who's it going to be? Well, the smart money's on Blunt. All the polls have shown the Republican as up in a Republican year.

But if you're not interested in staying up that late tomorrow night, here are three things to look for in the early returns that should tell you how the night will turn out.

1) In 2008, Barack Obama won St. Louis County 60 to 40 percent. It's one of the most heavily Democratic counties in the state. If Blunt is holding Carnahan to under 55 percent of the vote, the Republican is going to have a big night.

2) In 2006, Democrat Claire McCaskill won Boone County, 53 to 44 percent against Jim Talent. Boone County tends to vote for the Democrat in statewide races. If the victor there is too-close-to-call after, say, the first hour of polls closing, Carnahan should be worried.

3) Jackson County, comprising the eastern suburbs of Kansas City, is the consumate swing county in Missouri. Whoever's winning that county is winning the election.

All right, that's all for this week, folks. Until next time, take it easy and remember: vote.

Correlation means two things are associated in some way.

Causation is a specific form of correlation whereby one thing is directly causing the other.

The relationship between campaign contributions and the actions of politicians receiving them illustrates the difference.

The politicians insist contributors fund their campaigns because they agree on the issues.

Good government advocates say the politicians and their contributors agree on the issues because the contributors fund their campaigns.

Correlation vs. causation. I've got a story coming out this week about Rex Sinquefield's mammoth campaign contributions to candidates across the state.

All the politicians I interviewed for the piece insist, "No. No. No. The money doesn't influence me one bit."

Are they telling the truth? Read the article and decide for yourself.

In its editorial, the paper portrayed the vote as denying local control to Springfieldians and urged a "no" vote. In so doing, Missouri's third-largest newspaper joined the Kansas City Star and St. Louis Post-Dispatch in presenting a united front against the ballot measure.

The story I'm working on (a two-parter, actually) is about the money in the senate race: who's spending what and on whom? To that end, I'm using a lot of 2010 FEC data.

This reporter mentioned that she's sometimes afraid to get specific in her stories (especially with numbers and other facts) because she's worried that she might make a mistake and be embarrassed when it's discovered. So, she avoids specifics. This is why trusting your editor is so important.

As reporters, we rely on our editors to check our facts and question our copy but we also rely on them to have our backs when we do screw up. We need to know that, if a mistake does slip through and we're called out on it, our editors are going to back us up. Without that confidence, you get people like that reporter last night, who are afraid to do their jobs. That's not good for the watchdog role of the press. And that's not good for the public.

The Blunt campaign's objection, as explained by spokesman Rich Chrismer, was that they were worried about upsetting the television networks that were not chosen to air the debates.

That had political watchers dumbfounded since he'd made such a big deal about challenging Carnahan to a half dozen debates as recently as mid-August.

It's just too bad that more of Missouri's voters might not have the opportunity to watch these two candidates talk about the issues.

I assiduously took notes throughout the hearing, jotting down the arguments on both sides and thinking how I'd explain the issues to my readers.

The judge made clear he wanted all interviews to be conducted outside of the courthouse, so when the hearing ended after about an hour, I found myself flanked by reporters, interviewing the lawyers underneath a bright Missouri sun.

It was a scene I'd seen countless times before on the evening news: reporters interviewing attorneys outside of a courthouse.

And that's when it hit me: this is the Missouri method. I'm a reporter, just like the women and men next to me. Sure, I'm a student, too, but this isn't class. This is real. And I'm here, covering it.

I'm a reporter.

Now, if only I could get this press guy from the Blunt campaign to return my calls...

After a bit of phone tag, Sinquefield's assistant called the office back with some sobering news: Mr. Sinquefield is not doing any interviews with the media.

Ouch.

They say, "Once bitten, twice shy." I never let that get the best of me before and I won't let it get me down now, either. After all, if you never swing, you'll never get a hit. I'll keep swinging.