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Missouri Digital News
MDN.ORG
Mo. Digital News
Missouri Digital News
MDN.ORG:
Mo. Digital News
MDN.ORG:
Missouri Digital News
MDN.ORG:
Missouri Digital News
MDN.ORG
Mo. Digital News
Missouri Digital News
MDN.ORG:
Mo. Digital News
MDN.ORG:
Missouri Digital News
JEFFERSON CITY - Political scientists offer conflicting thoughts on the effect John Kerry's abandonment of TV advertising in Missouri will have on the state's gubernatorial race.
One analysts says Democrat Kerry's withdrawal of TV adds might help Democratic candidate for governor Claire McCaskill.
"At this stage, I think its safe to say that Claire would like to have her own race," said Rick Hardy, University of Missouri, Columbia political science professor.
With polls showing Kerry substantially behind Pres. George Bush, the Kerry campaign decided earlier this month to drop plans for TV adds in Missouri.
Some analysts say this amounts to a concession on the part of the Kerry campaign.
Marvin Overby, professor of political science at University of Missouri, Columbia, said Kerry made "the rational calculation" that he's unlikely to win Missouri.
Recent history shows there might not be a strong connection between who Missourians elect for the White House and who they elect to state office.
In 2000 when Bush narrowly defeated Gore, Missouri Democrats took all statewide office races except the secretary of state seat that went to Matt Blunt.
Hardy said ticket splitting has been going on for some time in Missouri and Kerry's television absence could allow McCaskill to focus on Missouri.
"I think it could be a blessing in some respects to Claire McCaskill in the sense that she can concentrate more on Missouri issues than trying to present John Kerry," said Hardy, who ran for US congress as a Republican in the early 1990s.
The last published poll on the race -- conducted for the St.Louis Post Dispatch and KMOV-TV -- found Kerry trailing Bush by eight percentage points among likely voters in Missouri. With Kerry showing poorly in the polls, Hardy said it might not do McCaskill any good to be seen campaigning beside him.
"As it stands right now, I would think that Claire has to run her race in her own way and John Kerry would subtract from that," Hardy said.
Without the added attention of a hotly contested Presidential race, it could give statewide candidates such as McCaskill and Blunt a chance to shine, Hardy said.
"It gives [McCaskill] more of an opportunity to get her word out without it being subsumed under the Kerry mantra," Hardy said.
But it may not work the same way with Republican gubernatorial candidate Matt Blunt. If Bush is running high in the polls then it would be good for Blunt to share some face time with the President, Hardy said. Blunt will likely get this opportunity after the October 8 presidential debate in St. Louis.
"Bush being here could add some legitimacy and credence to Matt Blunt's campaign," Hardy said.
Glenn Campbell, spokesperson for McCaskill, said the McCaskill campaign is not negatively effected by Kerry's decision and they will continue with business as usual.
"We have worked independently of the Kerry campaign and we're going to continue to do just that," Campbell said.
However, Overby said Kerry's decision to pull adds could have a negative impact on state Democrats including McCaskill.
"By pulling adds out that means there's likely to be less effort put in to turning out Democrats in Missouri from national party sources," Overby said.
According to a St. Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV poll, among 801 likely voters 46 percent favored Blunt compared to 45 percent for McCaskill.
With the race in a virtual dead heat, David Robertson, political science professor at the University of Missouri,St. Louis said Democrats should be concerned about the Kerry campaign's decision.
"I'd worry about anything that dampens turnout at all and it would be helpful for Sen. Kerry to mobilize Missouri voters especially going in to the endpoint of registration," Robertson said.
Early October is the deadline for Missourians to register to vote for the November election.
However, get-out-the-vote efforts and television adds from soft money groups as well as the Democratic party could offset the effects of Kerry's decision, Robertson said.
"There are some compensating expenditures...that can to some extent make up for the absence of Kerry's direct advertising in the state," Robertson said.
A hotly contested gubernatorial race could attract voters on its own, Robertson said. And if Kerry does gain some ground after the television debates, he might decide to run some adds in October.